September 2011
2 posts
1 tag
“The U.S., to be clear, has always had a debt, since 1776. The original...”
– David Graeber (via azspot)
July 2011
4 posts
“This is obvious to us now, but could you have seen the danger of bad logic while...”
– An email discussing Groupon (Part 1); First-mover advantage is definitely not permanent « Stableboy Selections
“I’ve had times where I spent 30 hours reading everything, only to get to...”
– On the Simplicity of Thought « The ST Report
Let’s pause for a second. In the 1990s, the Chinese banking system basically collapsed. To revive it, the Chinese government took bad loans from banks’ balance sheets and put them into off-balance-sheet vehicles (Enron would be proud of that financial ingenuity). Banks started to function as though nothing had happened. To finance the off-balance-sheet assets, the government set deposit interest rates at very low levels: 1% or so. In a country with a very high savings rate and 5% inflation, this resulted in a 4% annual loss of purchasing power.
Chinese consumers were punished severely over the last 10 years for the banking crisis of the late ’90s. And they’ll be punished even more soon. Keeping money in the bank didn’t make that much sense, and investment alternatives were limited. However, they could invest in an asset that supposedly never declines in price – a house or condo. So they did. As China slams the brakes on the economy and as housing prices fall, the banks will lose plenty of money. But more importantly, it is the people who bought tremendously overpriced houses, and their relatives who lent them money, who will lose. The wealth and hard work of more than one generation will be lost, and this kind of pain leads to political unrest.
“China has invested heavily in its cement production capacity, nearly tripling...”
– » Cement in China Market Size Blog
June 2011
3 posts
“even if the investor has no interest in buying more of a given position (e.g....”
– Barel Karsan: The Lower The Better
“There is a prisoner’s dilemma among relative return investors vs. absolute...”
– Baupost’s underperformance throughout the 90′s; relative performance and duplicate bridge scoring; my discussion with Longtop shareholders « Stableboy Selections
Muddy Waters Initiating Coverage on TRE.TO,... →
May 2011
10 posts
“Some people have observed that a good time to short the market is when the...”
– More on the Shenzhen property market. When will China build the world’s tallest building? NOAH collapses. « Stableboy Selections
“The problem is morphology of sin. Clean accounts, like virginity, refer to one...”
– Bronte Capital: Longtop Financial: lessons in the morphology of sin, loss of virginity and your 17 year old daughter
“Above all, the key to success in investing is about taking responsibility for...”
– Embracing heresy | Ultimi Barbarorum
“Most funds are primarily interested in asset gathering and not performance. My...”
– Should a regular Joe manage his own portfolio?
SSRN-What is the Riskfree Rate? A Search for the... →
“I think the true test of whether you can do valuation is whether you can take...”
– Musings on Markets: Alternatives to the CAPM: Wrapping up
“I would love to find a company with growing earnings, no debt, trading for less...”
– Musings on Markets: Margin of Safety: An alternative risk assessment tool?
“Adding MOS to the investment process adds a constraint and every constraint...”
– Musings on Markets: Margin of Safety: An alternative risk assessment tool?
Is cash so terrible? He just got done praising Klarman, to whom holding cash is next to godliness.
“The reason we build in margins for error is because we are uncertain about our...”
– Musings on Markets: Margin of Safety: An alternative risk assessment tool?
“I have never understood why MOS is offered as an alternative to the standard...”
– Musings on Markets: Margin of Safety: An alternative risk assessment tool?
April 2011
1 post
Bronte Capital: Fatal Risk – the must-read book on... →
The minor nature of the AIG-Gen Re transaction is laid clear when Roddy suggests that there is an “excellent chance that Greenberg gave the Gen Re issues - which cost him his job, his honor, his status and perhaps over a billion dollars in personal wealth - all of five minutes of consideration.”
March 2011
8 posts
“Do not invest in a fund where the fund manager has access to your assets. Ok –...”
– Bronte Capital: Danger danger: The Wall Street Journal has no idea on how to do hedge fund due diligence
THE EXPLODING U.S. MONEY SUPPLY MYTH…. | PRAGMATIC... →
“When the leaders in the field start speaking easily identifiable egregious crap...”
– Bronte Capital: The high frequency traders are just making it up
“Our Social Security system has problems because it is conceived of as an...”
– German Pension Insurance « LaMarotte
“In order for a story stock to become a success, three elements have to fall into...”
– A Story Goes With It | AdvisorAnalyst Views
“Even if they may be personally convinced that the markets they follow do not...”
– Patience is priceless, but doesn’t pay (CORRECTED) | James Saft | Analysis & Opinion | Reuters.com
“If you have a bigger installed base of customers than your competitors do, you...”
– Who owns Motorola Mobility? People who live under rocks. Xoom is going to flop. « STABLEBOY SELECTIONS
February 2011
7 posts
“I see the same thing when people sell micro caps they know are good values. The...”
– How Warren Buffett Thinks About Micro Cap Stocks — GuruFocus.com
“If you put your private business up for sale, there will be no discussion of...”
– Warren Buffett: How to Make 50% a Year in Micro Cap Stocks — GuruFocus.com
“Furniture - unlike textiles - is a consumer product. But furniture is tricky...”
– Investing in Turnarounds - Gannon On Investing - Gannon On Investing
“I do serious research. I will pay someone to stake out a factory in China and...”
– Bronte Capital: A small hedge fund manager’s lament
“I assume people never change. That sounds harsh. But it’s an effective way...”
– Why I Never Talk to Management - Gannon On Investing - Gannon On Investing
“This piqued my interest in the market impact of small finance blogs like mine....”
– MPG-PA : Hat tip to a fellow blogger
“In my mind, my portfolio is an import-export business. I import some goods...”
– How to avoid behaving badly as an investor
December 2010
1 post
“When I worked at Apple, I spent a lot of time studying failed computer...”
– Mobile Opportunity: What’s really wrong with BlackBerry (and what to do about it)
November 2010
2 posts
“Bargains like this should NEVER exist in an efficient market—especially for such...”
– AdventuresinCapitalism | Hidden Value (Advertising Expense)
Templeton Letters « What Would John Templeton Say? →
October 2010
3 posts
“In effect, the documents said, Wall Street was “copying and pasting” what turned...”
– Carrick Mollenkamp and Serena Ng in Senate’s Goldman Probe Shows Toxic Magnification - WSJ.com (via quotingthecrisis)
“It’s also a little surprising that people stuck with name brand gum, which...”
– News from 1930: Company Case Study 1
superfluidity: Solon on greedy Wall Street types... →
superfluidity:
I’m spending a lot of time this semester studying Athenian politics. (That means that you can expect some ancient and modern quotations about government and citizenship, and it also partially explains this overlong rant in response to a simple question.) Usually I feel compelled to point out how…
September 2010
3 posts
A Thousand-bagger — McDonald’s In The Sixties «... →
“I suspect the first thing that most analysts would do when presented with such...”
– Mid-Continent Tab Card Co. « Compounding Machines
“So if we’re not willing to cut spending, we have to turn to business....”
– The Last Psychiatrist: The Terrible, Awful Truth About The Tax Cuts
August 2010
15 posts
“But even skeptics of test-score-based evaluations acknowledge that a uniform,...”
– Needs Improvement: Where Teacher Report Cards Fall Short - WSJ.com
To paraphrase Shakespeare: “First, we kill all the principals.”
“The decision falls to a new council of 10 regulators, led by the Treasury...”
– Regulators Begin Process of Labeling the ‘Systemically Important’ - WSJ.com
“The latest push by schools is to target veterans, whose benefits let for-profit...”
– HEARD ON THE STREET: For-Profit Schools Face Detention Not Expulsion - WSJ.com
I hate to say “scumbags” about any industry as a whole. But I did.
“ITT’s two-year associate degrees can cost as much as $47,000, estimates...”
– HEARD ON THE STREET: For-Profit Schools Face Detention Not Expulsion - WSJ.com
“Once the risk model is specified, the traders will try to find a way around it....”
– Rick Bookstaber: Physics Envy in Finance
“I think it is useful to go one step further, and ask where this fuzzy,...”
– Rick Bookstaber: Physics Envy in Finance